Poll Report 2024

States United Democracy Center

The Big Picture Takeaways

Over the past year, Americans’ perspectives on election security, election denialism, and political violence have exhibited remarkable stability.

This trend persists across various partisan identities, indicating a broad consensus on these issues. Pluralities express trust in American electoral institutions while simultaneously voicing disapproval of political violence. However, it is essential to recognize that interpretations of terms like “political violence” and “election security” may vary depending on individual perspectives and preferences.

This consistency in responses over time can be attributed to several factors. Firstly, it reflects genuine attitudes held by respondents, underscoring the resilience of public opinion on these critical issues. Additionally, the absence of a highly charged presidential campaign in recent months has likely contributed to the sustained stability in public sentiment. Political campaigns play a pivotal role in shaping public discourse and influencing individuals’ considerations when forming attitudes and making decisions.

In the detailed results provided below, we delve into the nuances of these findings, shedding light on the intricacies of American attitudes towards election security, election denialism, and political violence. By exploring these patterns over time and across different demographic groups, we gain valuable insights into the dynamics shaping contemporary political discourse in the United States.

Tracking Attitudes About Elections Over Time

States United Action conducted four surveys, beginning in June 2023, to ask Americans a variety of questions related to U.S. elections. The findings offer a baseline for attitudes about election topics as the 2024 election year begins in earnest.

A bold suggestion to frame the report in the current eclection year: “As the nation approaches the upcoming election year, these survey results provide insights into the public’s perception of voting methods and serve as a foundation for understanding broader attitudes toward the electoral process.”

Major findings

• A plurality of Americans trust electoral institutions and are concerned about political violence.
• A plurality of Americans strongly disagree that the 2020 election was rigged against Donald Trump.
• Americans have high levels of trust in a variety of methods for voting and for counting votes.
• Views on election security, election denial, political violence, and related matters have generally been stable over the past year.

Survey Information

Participation across waves

In compiling our survey data, we gathered insights from a diverse pool of respondents, totaling 5,616 individuals across all survey waves. Across the last three waves, the sample sizes have been almost identical. it is important to note that during the second wave, we excluded the oversample of independents to ensure a balanced representation.

Partisanship in the latest wave

An intriguing aspect of our approach is how we classify respondents who express uncertainty regarding their partisanship. While conventional academic practice may label such individuals as missing data points, we take a different stance. We treat these respondents as independents, a decision rooted in our curiosity about the perspectives of individuals with less defined partisan leanings. As a result, our data may exhibit a slightly higher proportion of independents compared to traditional academic samples.

This nuanced approach underscores our commitment to exploring a broad spectrum of perspectives within our survey data. By including those who are unsure of their political affiliations, we gain valuable insights into the views of individuals who may not fit neatly into conventional partisan categories. Our goal is to paint a comprehensive picture of public sentiment, capturing the diverse array of opinions that shape our socio-political landscape. As we delve deeper into our findings, we invite readers to consider the richness of our dataset and the unique insights it offers into the complexities of contemporary political discourse.

Partisanship Across Survey Waves

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Confidence in American Elections

Most participants expressed positive confidence in the electoral process, with varying degrees of certainty. A significant portion reported being completely or fairly confident, while a smaller group felt somewhat or slightly confident.

However, nearly a quarter of the respondents indicated they had no confidence at all in the electoral process, and a small percentage were unsure or did not provide an answer.

These trends in confidence in American elections has remained stable over the past year across all confidence levels.

In February 2024, a plurality of Americans—about 44 percent—reported being completely or fairly confident that American elections are free, fair, and secure. This level of confidence is consistent with the results from June 2023, indicating no significant change over time.

Positive attitudes in confidence in the first and latest survey

This stability suggests a steady perception among the public regarding the integrity of electoral processes.

By Partisanship

When examining confidence levels across different partisan groups, we observe similar stability. Despite the highly polarized political environment, confidence in the fairness and security of elections has not dramatically fluctuated within any particular political affiliation.

While the confidence levels remain rather stable over time, significant differences emerge when examining confidence levels among partisan groups. Among Democrats, 37% express complete confidence in the electoral process, with a mere 6% indicating they have no confidence at all. This high level of trust among Democrats contrasts sharply with the sentiments of Independents and Republicans.

For Independents, only 8% report being completely confident in the fairness and security of American elections, while a substantial 31% express no confidence at all. The disparity is even more pronounced among Republicans, where only 7% are completely confident and a notable 38% lack any confidence in the electoral process. These figures highlight a stark partisan divide, suggesting that political affiliation significantly influences perceptions of election integrity.

Winning vs Counting Votes

An overwhelming majority of Americans prioritize the principle of counting every legal vote over ensuring their preferred candidates win. In the February 2024 survey, 74% of respondents either strongly (59%) or somewhat agreed (15%) with this principle.

This sentiment has remained stable over time, underscoring the enduring value placed on fair and accurate vote counting by the American public.

By Partisanship

This consensus also transcends partisan identification, demonstrating a shared commitment to electoral integrity across the political spectrum.

2020 was Rigged

A significant portion of Americans strongly disagree with the claim that the 2020 election was rigged against Donald Trump.

This sentiment that has remained stable over time.

By Partisanship

Support for Election Denying Candidates

A plurality of respondents said they would be less likely to support a candidate who denies election results, with 39% expressing this view, compared to the 14% who said they would be more likely to support such a candidate. 38% of respondents stated that election denial would make no difference in their support.

This finding has remained relatively stable over time. Since June 2023, the percentage of respondents who said they would be less likely to support a candidate who denies election results has remained consistent. The percentage of those who said they would be more likely to support such a candidate has shown a slight decline since December 2023, from 19% to 14%.

Keep in mind that this item poses a hypothetical question to respondents. There is likely some truth to these responses, but people tend to have a pretty limited capacity to project what their behavior would look like under hypothetical circumstances, and in a real situation, political discourse would probably be informed by one or more candidates engaging in denialism.

By Partisanship

Democrats are significantly less likely to support a candidate who denies election results compared to Republicans.

Across the surveys, Democrats consistently exhibit a strong aversion to supporting Election Deniers: a substantial majority above 50% indicates they would be less likely to support such candidates. In contrast, Republicans demonstrate the lowest level of aversion, with only a small minority (around 10%) expressing they would be less likely. Independents fall between these two groups, with a notable but less pronounced reluctance to support Election Deniers compared to Democrats, and a higher level of aversion compared to Republicans.

The differences in attitudes between these partisan groups remain relatively stable across the surveys, indicating consistent patterns of behavior regarding support for candidates who claim election rigging.

Election Security

TODO: Which dataset and variable?

Concern about False and Misleading Information

Most Americans—about 73% in February 2024—are very or somewhat concerned about false or misleading election claims.

A significant majority of Americans—approximately 73% as of February 2024—say they are very or somewhat concerned. Specifically, 38% indicate being very concerned, while an additional 35% report being somewhat concerned. Conversely, only a small proportion, 13%, express not very much concern, with an even smaller share of 6% indicating no concern at all.

These trends demonstrate remarkable stability over time. The difference between the largest concern groups, very concerned and somewhat concerned, remains minimal with only a 4% variation. The proportion of respondents who are unsure or undecided fluctuates modestly, ranging between 7% and 11% across the surveys.

By Partisanship

Importantly, the concern about false or misleading election claims is widely shared across partisan lines. While there are slight differences in the intensity of concern, majorities of Republicans, Democrats, and Independents acknowledge this issue: 75% of Democrats express being very or somewhat concerned, followed by 74% of Republicans and 68% of Independents. Only a small fraction of independents, 2%, report no concern at all, compared to Democrats (7%) and Republicans (6%).

Political Violence

A plurality of Americans say political violence is a major problem, and large majorities say it’s at least a minor problem. These findings are generally stable over time.

By Partisanship

Most Americans believe political violence has increased over the past few years. The proportion who say this has risen since June 2023.

Social Media Use

Most Americans say they use social media more than once a day—52% in the February 2024 survey. Only 14% use social media platforms once or week or less.

Reported use of social media has increased over time from 59% using social media platforms at least once a day in June 2023 to 70% in February 2024.

By Partisanship

The increases in social media use are similar when examining the shares among partisan groups: in all groups the majority uses social media at least once a day and those numbers are rising.

Trust in Methods of Voting

A majority of Americans place a significant level of trust in various methods of voting, including dropboxes, mail-in ballots, in-person early voting, and in-person voting on Election Day. Notably, Americans demonstrate exceptionally high levels of trust in the act of voting in person on Election Day, with a staggering 87% expressing a great deal (64%) or fair amount (23%) of confidence in this traditional method.

Despite the dynamic political landscape, attitudes toward voting methods have remained relatively stable over time, reflecting a consistent level of trust among the American populace.

These findings underscore the enduring faith that Americans place in the electoral system, highlighting the importance of maintaining transparent and reliable voting procedures.

Trust in Methods of Casting Votes

Trust is high for voting on machines that produce paper ballots, for voting on machines that produce only electronic ballots, and for hand-marking a paper ballot. In February 2024, the percentage of respondents who said that they have a great deal or a fair amount of trust in these methods was 65% for both, casting a vote on a machine that produces a paper ballot and for casting a vote on a machine that produces an electronic ballot. Hand-marked paper ballots enjoy even higher levels of trust with 77% of participants saying they trust this method a great deal (49%) or a fair amount (28%).

The trends are overall stable with hand-marking a paper ballot experiencing an increase of 6 percent points in respondents agreeing to “a great deal” compared to the previous survey in December 2023.

Trust in Methods of Counting Votes

Americans also express high levels of trust in each of these four methods of counting votes. In February of 2024, majorities report that they have a great deal or a fair amount of trust in counting votes electronically using machines (67%), counting votes by hand (65%), machines that scan paper ballots (72%), and machines that scan paper ballots that are partially verified by a hand count (72%).

Over the last surveys, these trends reaim stable with a noticable decrease of participants having no trust at all for all three methods.

The End